As I was finishing Nuclear War, Annie Applebaum’s troubling book on what the descent into an apocalyptic nuclear exchange might look like, a movie variation aired on Showtime. In the movie, The Sum of All Fears, rookie CIA analyst Jack Ryan, played by a young Ben Affleck, survives a nuclear attack on Baltimore and saves us from World War III at the last minute. He does it by speaking frankly with Russia’s president. Sure, that could happen.
In the book’s granular and more realistic scenario, civilization is destroyed after North Korea initiates a “bolt out of the blue” — aka surprise — attack. It’s a dire warning about the utter insanity of such an unwinnable war.
This reminded me of Friedrich Nietzsche’s lament, “If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss will gaze back at you.” His point was to warn about the danger of fixating on the negative, losing perspective and becoming too cynical about what we see. These days we need to take that to heart.
On the other hand, it’s also dangerous not to recognize uncomfortable realities that stare us in the face. Despite the relief we might feel when engrossed in the Hollywood version of a catastrophe averted, most people sense that in the real world no hero will come to the rescue. Such wishful thinking is a temporary escape into denial. Unfortunately, millions choose that.
Denial often distorts how we address modern problems, important things like preserving what remains of democracy across the planet. Even before Trump’s re-election, at least 70 percent of the world's population — about 5.7 billion — was living under dictatorships, according to a report from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Institute. This should be shocking, but it’s mostly just ignored.
The late 1980s and early 1990s did bring on a surge in democratization movements, which challenged many dictatorships and led to a transition to more democratic governance in several countries. But since then dictatorships have been on the rise worldwide.
Democratic decline has been most dramatic in the Pacific region, Eastern Europe, Central Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean. It’s a sad fact that the number of countries currently experiencing democratic setbacks, or becoming autocracies, has increased since 2010. One popular euphemism is illiberal democracy.
On most lists, more than 50 countries are now classified as dictatorships or authoritarian regimes. It may sound like an exaggeration, but here’s a list — from the more to least free: Mali, Mauritania, Kuwait, Algeria, Burkina Faso, Angola, Iraq, Jordan, Nicaragua, Gabon, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Russia, Niger, Qatar, Zimbabwe, Kazakhstan, Republic of the Congo, Cambodia, Rwanda, Comoros, Eswatini, Guinea, Myanmar, Oman, Vietnam, Egypt, Afghanistan, Cuba, Togo, Cameroon, Venezuela, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Azerbaijan, Guinea-Bissau, Belarus, Sudan, Bahrain, China, Iran, Eritrea, Burundi, Uzbekistan, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Yemen, Tajikistan, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkmenistan, Chad, Syria, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and North Korea. You may dispute the order, but few would call them democracies.
The thing is, you won’t find the United States on such dictatorship lists. But at this point it ought to be. That’s another example of denial. Despite the mounting evidence, most Americans persist in believing we simply have very conservative leadership at the moment, or that it might become a “constitutional crisis.” They think that diplomacy, compromise and orderly transitions remain possible, even with those who no longer believe in these ideas.
Both President Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance have made their position quite clear: the most dangerous enemies, they say, are the “enemies within.” As a result, it seems foolish not to realize that they and faithful members of the MAGA movement will do just about anything to defeat, prosecute, jail or even eliminate these “threats.” And the list is growing.
The real question is what kind of dictatorship we have, and where things go from here. We don’t know for certain that Trump and Vladimir Putin have a formal alliance, but there is little evidence to contradict, and much to confirm that grim conclusion. The latest clue is Trump’s so-called “final” proposal for Ukraine’s acquiescence to one-sided peace terms with Russia.
This new partnership also appears to include Hungary, Turkey, Israel and other client states. Accepting that there is a new global authoritarian alliance, a veritable league of despots, is painful but necessary. The main lingering question is how China fits in.
Maybe the confusion stems from the fact that America’s tyranny is not one of the more typical kinds. It’s not a military dictatorship or a one-party state, controlled by the leadership of a single political party. Republicans have congressional majorities, but no longer much practical influence. Instead, the nation has drifted into a personalist dictatorship, one controlled by a single individual who claims absolute power, defies the courts, ignores congress, dismantles agencies and institutions, rejects equality and human rights, and enforces his will through fear. He doesn’t govern, he rules — however it suits him day to day. And we also have state media in the form of Fox news, excusing and rationalizing most of it.
It looks like a throwback to Roman or Russian empire style. Or if you like, old England. In what is known as the Eleven Year Tyranny, from 1629 to 1640, King Charles I was an absolute monarch who paid no attention to parliament. In fact, during the third year of his reign, he dissolved it. Charles had reached a simplistic conclusion: as long as he avoided war, he didn’t need a legislature.
Like Trump, King Charles thought he had the right to make and change laws at will. Assuming he had a divine right to rule, he believed that those who disagreed with him were in contempt of God. But his refusal to take advice or follow any laws eventually undermined his popularity and led to a horrific civil war, the bloodiest ever fought in Britain.
Another example of denial is the idea that Trump is incompetent and impulsive, with no overarching game plan. Maybe that’s comforting for those who think he’s not capable of being an effective tyrant. When Bill Maher recently met with him, the comedian expressed pleasant surprise to find that Trump wasn’t crazy. “A crazy person doesn't live in the White House,” he reported glibly on his show. “A person who plays a crazy person on TV a lot lives there.” Is that any better? In fact, it’s probably more dangerous. It makes him a high functioning sociopath.
Maher’s account suggests that nothing Trump says and claims to want can be trusted. He was apparently seduced, however, coming away with the feeling that Trump might even “accept me as a possible friend.” Mission accomplished. But sociopaths don’t have friends, or any regard for others. Their characteristic behaviors are lies, law and ruling breaking, and a lack of concern for the safety of anyone else. In this sense at least, Trump is consistent.
The good news is that, more than likely, it won’t end well for America’s wannabe king. He may not be assassinated, but there are many ways to exit as ugly as he arrived.
The average length of a dictator’s reign is from 10 to 13 years. Some cling to power for decades, but most are overthrown much sooner, and a few die of natural causes. Military dictatorships are usually less stable, tending on average to last only about five years. Trump’s reign will probably run for at least eight, not counting his Mar-a-lago interregnum.
In 1649, Charles I was ultimately sentenced to death and beheaded in public. About a century later, in Russia, Peter III was likely assassinated, and, in 1917, Nicholas II was gunned down by soldiers with his wife, four daughters, and son before the revolution.
Italy’s Benito Mussolini remained in power for more than twenty years, but was shot, then hung in public in 1945. As WWII ended, Japan’s Hideki Tojo, Norway’s Vidkun Quisling and Romania’s Ion Antonescu were all tried and executed for war crimes. Hitler avoided that fate by committing suicide; his “1,000 year reich” had lasted only twelve.
During the 1960s, Dominican Republic strongman Rafael Trujillo Molina was gunned down; his assassins included one of his generals. In South Vietnam, Ngo Dinh Diem was bayoneted and shot. In the 1970s, Park Chung-hee of South Korea was also shot — by a former friend during a dinner party. Francisco Macías Nguema of Equatorial Guinea was tried for genocide, embezzlement, and treason, then executed.
Nicaragua’s Anastasio Somoza was ousted, but then shot down in 1980 when guerilla gunmen caught up with him. Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu was ultimately put on trial for crimes against the state and publicly executed in 1989. In the next decade, Liberia’s Samuel Doe was tortured for 12 hours before he was killed.
The big three unhappy endings in the 21st century so far have been Laurent Kabila, the Congo ruler who was shot by one of his own bodyguards; Iraq’s Saddam Hussein, who was convicted of war crimes in Baghdad and hung; and Muammar Gadhafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years before being toppled by rebels, tracked down and executed on sight.
This is by no means a complete list, but does illustrate how things could go for Trump. More likely, he’ll attempt to hold onto power after his legal term ends, but find that resistance and civilian rule make that difficult. There could be a civil war; his most fanatic followers already wanted that after he lost in 2020. But it’s equally possible, based on his countless abuses of power, that he’ll ultimately be forced to face his own dark abyss, or perhaps flee to a safe haven in another tyrant’s domain.